Newtown Fallout: Cerberus Retreats From Guns

While President Barack Obama and other Democratic politicians clear their throats about proposing new gun control laws sometime next year, the marketplace is responding swiftly to the Newtown, Conn., elementary school massacre.

Dick’s Sporting Goods, one of the largest retailers in its industry, said Tuesday it is suspending the sale of certain military-style semiautomatic rifles similar to the one used by the Newtown killer. Fox News reported that Discovery Channel has decided to cancel its popular reality show “American Guns.”

Less visible to consumers, but no less important, Cerberus, a $ 20 billion private-equity firm based in New York, announced overnight that, under pressure from the California teachers’ pension fund, it will sell its controlling stake in the country’s largest guns-and-ammo manufacturer, a conglomerate called Freedom Group. The semiautomatic rifle used to slaughter 26 people at Sandy Hook Elementary School, 20 of them children, was made by Bushmaster Firearms, one of the companies that operates under the Freedom Group umbrella.

The California State Teachers’ Retirement System, which has $ 751 million invested with Cerberus, said it would review its relationship with the private-equity firm “given the tragic events last Friday in Newtown, Conn.” Cerberus then followed with its announcement, saying that unloading Freedom Group “allows us to meet our obligations to the investors whose interests we are entrusted to protect without being drawn into the national debate” on gun control.

Bloomberg TV’s Tom Keene asked me this morning on his “Surveillance” program whether this the beginning of something akin to the divestment campaign aimed at breaking South Africa’s apartheid system. That’s a provocative question. The answer is probably no, and the reasons shed light on the nature of the American gun market.

Gun ownership in the United States is not apartheid. Millions of Americans relish firearms and use them for lawful hunting, shooting sports, and self-defense. To many people, guns represent individualism and self-reliance. The Supreme Court has interpreted the Second Amendment as protecting an individual right to keep a handgun in the home. Forty-nine states allow their citizens to carry guns concealed in public. A federal appeals court recently said that the sole holdout, Illinois, violated the Second Amendment by prohibiting concealed carry.

The $ 2 billion American gun industry is not the South African economy. The gun market historically has been fragmented and made up of relatively small companies. It consolidated in recent years, driven largely by Cerberus buying companies such as Bushmaster (and Remington, Marlin, and Para USA) in hopes of squeezing redundancies from their operations and selling off the roll-up in an IPO. To Cerberus’ frustration, the initial private offering had stalled for reasons having nothing to do with Newtown. (Finding efficiencies and cross-marketing opportunities turned out to be more difficult than the private-equity gurus anticipated.) Now, Cerberus will use the cover of renewed controversy over gun control–and the suddenly shocked sensibilities of the California teachers pension-fund managers (from whom Freedom Group presumably had not been kept secret)–to dump a guns-and-ammo play that wasn’t working out smoothly.

There are personal elements to the move, as well. Stephen Feinberg, who founded Cerberus in 1992, and is an avid hunter and gun enthusiast. His father, Martin Feinberg, lives in Newtown and told Bloomberg News the shooting was “devastating.”

Cerberus’ move and the prospect that the companies within Freedom Group will get sold off individually or in small clumps will return the fractious gun industry to something closer to what it looked like a half-dozen years ago. Smith & Wesson (SWHC) and Sturm Ruger (RGR), the two publicly traded gun makers in the U.S., will stand a little larger in relative terms. Glock, Beretta, and Taurus will continue to import guns from, respectively, Austria, Italy, and Brazil (as well as assemble weapons in their U.S. plants). And overall, gun makers will likely enjoy increased sales over the next six to 12 months, as consumers buy additional pistols and rifles out of fear that their favorites might be more difficult to obtain if Democrats succeed in pushing through new restrictions.

There will be additional post-Newtown reaction from retailers and from Hollywood. Wal-Mart (WMT) is a major gun seller. It accounts for about 13 percent of Freedom Group’s sales, for example. The world’s biggest retail chain will doubtless come under pressure from anti-gun activists to curb its firearms sales, and the image-conscious company may follow its more specialized rival Dick’s.

In the entertainment world, the cable channel TLC has already delayed airing a show called “Best Funeral Ever.” Violent movie trailers might get postponed or edited. The massacre during a showing of The Dark Knight Rises in Aurora (Colo.) in July prompted Warner Bros. to pull the trailer for the forthcoming Gangster Squad, which showed a theater shooting. Later the studio cut the scene entirely.

Whether marketplace behavior will change over the long haul is a different question. Gangster Squad‘s opening was delayed but not cancelled. The film, pitting organized crime killers against police in Depression-era Los Angeles, is now slated to begin in theaters next month, and it will still include plenty of gunplay.

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Iran media: Son of ex-president released on bail

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — Iranian media say the son of influential former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani has been released on bail.

Several papers, including the pro-reform Etemad daily, say Mahdi Hashemi was released late Sunday and immediately went to his father’s home.

Authorities arrested the younger Hashemi in late September, a day after he returned to Iran from Britain.

He is held on charges of fomenting unrest in the aftermath of Iran’s disputed 2009 presidential election that brought President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad a second term in office. Hashemi also faced corruption charges.

His arrest came days after his sister, Faezeh, was taken into custody to serve a six-month sentence on charges of making propaganda against Iran’s ruling system.

Since Rafsanjani backed Ahmadinejad’s reformist challenger in 2009, his family has come under pressure from hardliners.

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Clearwire accepts slightly sweeter bid from Sprint

(Reuters) – Clearwire Corp agreed to sell roughly half of the company for $ 2.2 billion to majority shareholder Sprint Nextel Corp, which would then have full ownership of spectrum that will help it offer high-speed wireless services.

The $ 2.97-per-share deal is only 7 cents per share higher than a bid many minority shareholders said was too low days before. Clearwire shares tumbled 12.2 percent to $ 2.96 in morning trading on Monday.

Sprint already owns slightly more than half of Clearwire. The company said owners of 13 percent of Clearwire shares – Comcast Corp, Intel Corp and Bright House Networks LLC – had agreed to vote for the deal.

But it was not immediately clear whether Sprint, the No. 3 U.S. wireless carrier, could win the backing of a majority of Clearwire’s minority shareholders, which it needs to take control.

“This is not going to be popular with the minority shareholders,” said Davidson & Co analyst Donna Jaegers.

But Clearwire’s top executive told analysts on a Monday call that the company had little alternative.

“Despite our efforts we have been unable to secure new partnerships,” said Clearwire Chief Executive Officer Erik Prusch. “Our existing governance agreements prevented us from offering third parties the governance rights they desired in a partnership.”

Shareholders with more than 13 percent of Clearwire shares said last week that they were not happy with the $ 2.90-per-share offer, and some have said Sprint should offer as much as $ 5 per share.

Crest Financial, which owns more than 3 percent of Clearwire, recently filed a lawsuit to stop the company from selling itself to Sprint.

After the deal was announced on Monday, Crest said it had amended the lawsuit to make it a class action.

Another shareholder, Mount Kellett, said last week that the $ 2.90-a-share deal “grossly” undervalued Clearwire.

Clearwire, which also counts Sprint as its biggest customer, has been seeking financing for a high-speed wireless network upgrade and to keep itself afloat.

While some analysts and shareholders said Clearwire did not need to rush into a sale to Sprint, others have said that move would be its best hope for survival.

Sprint, whose shares rose 1 percent to $ 5.61 on Monday, needs Clearwire’s substantial spectrum to better arm itself against larger rivals Verizon Wireless and AT&T Inc.

Reuters reported last week that Japan’s Softbank Corp, which recently struck a deal to buy 70 percent of Sprint, would not consent to a bid of more than $ 2.97 per share.

Softbank said on Monday that it supported the deal.

(Reporting by Sinead Carew in New York and Sayantani Ghosh in Bangalore; Editing by Rodney Joyce, Sriraj Kalluvila and Lisa Von Ahn)

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Jason Mraz tops Myanmar anti-trafficking concert

YANGON, Myanmar (AP) — American singer-songwriter Jason Mraz mixed entertainment with education to become the first world-class entertainer in decades to perform in Myanmar, with a concert to raise awareness of human trafficking.

Mraz’s 2008 hit “I’m Yours” was the finale for Sunday night’s concert before a crowd of about 50,000 people at the base of the famous hilltop Shwedagon Pagoda in Yangon, the country’s biggest city.

Local artists, including a hip-hop singer, also played at the event organized by the anti-trafficking media group MTV EXIT — for “End Exploitation and Trafficking” —in cooperation with U.S. and Australian government aid agencies and the anti-slavery organization Walk Free.

Myanmar is emerging from decades of isolation under a reformist elected government that took office last year after almost five decades of military rule. It has been one of the region’s poorest countries, and its bad human rights record made it the target of political and economic sanctions by Western nations.

But democratic reforms initiated by President Thein Sein have led to the lifting of most sanctions, and the country is hopeful of a political and economic revival. Nobel Peace Prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, the pro-democracy opposition leader, was released from house arrest in late 2010 and won a seat in parliament last April.

Mraz called his top-billed appearance at the concert a “tremendous honor.”

“I think the country is, at this time, downloading lots of new information from all around the world,” he said. “I’ve always wanted my music to be here, (for) hope and celebration, peace, love and happiness. And so I’m delighted that my music can be a part of this big download that Myanmar is experiencing right now.”

Organizers said Mraz was the first international artist to perform at an open-air, mass public concert in Myanmar. Jazz artists Count Basie, Duke Ellington and Charlie Byrd visited the country under U.S. government sponsorship in the 1970s, when it was still called Burma, but played at much smaller venues.

Many in the crowd queued for two hours before being admitted to the concert site. Yangon native Sann Oo, 31, wearing a white T-shirt with a sketch of Mraz, said he was pleased that Mraz had come and that there would be a broadcast of the event.

“His visit can promote the image of Myanmar, because people outside have been seeing the country as an insecure place, and poor,” he said. “Now they can see how we look like from the concert. It also opens the potential for more concerts by foreign artists.”

Mraz has a history of involvement with human rights and other social causes.

But there was some criticism of his visit by campaigners for Myanmar‘s Muslim Rohingya community, which has been the target of ethnic-based violence this year that has forced tens of thousands of people from their homes into makeshift refugee camps. They feel Myanmar’s government has been complicit in the discrimination, and that Mraz’s visit provides it cover with the image of being a defender of human rights.

Mraz said he was aware of the issue, but that if he didn’t come to do the concert because someone else had asked him to protest another problem, then that would not help tackle the exploitation and human trafficking issue.

“I understand that there is a lot of wrongdoing in this world,” he said. “Today I’m here for this.”

Walk Free used the occasion of Sunday’s concert to launch a campaign calling on the world’s major corporations “to work together to end modern slavery by identifying, eradicating and preventing forced labor in their operations and supply chains.” They are seeking to have the companies make a “zero tolerance for slavery pledge” by the end of March next year.

“While many think of slavery as a relic of history, experts estimate that there are currently 20.9 million people living under threat of violence, abuse and harsh penalties,” the Australia-based group said in a statement. “Within this massive number, the majority of people – more than 14.2 million – are in a forced labor situation, used to source raw materials, and create products in sectors such as agriculture, construction, manufacturing and domestic work.”

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Kids Lead Crowd Funded Scientific Mission to Nicaragua: Science Education is the Tide that Lifts All Boats

Enzo, Haley and Emma are ordinary kids working on an extraordinary mission. They are joining up with a team of Special Forces medics and elite, global surgeons to deliver medical aid to the Rama Indians of Nicaragua in the spring of 2013.In partnership with HumaniTV, the journey will be beamed to tens of thousands of kids around the globe by satellite as the three middle school students trek through the jungles of Central America performing research on sustainable agriculture and seeing first hand how science and innovation improves peoples’ lives.”We want to send a message to kids that science isn’t just about getting a better job and making more money,” says team captain and the creator of Exploration nation, twelve year old Enzo. “If it wasn’t for science, we’d still be sitting in a cave somewhere chomping on a mammoth bone in the dark.”The high profile expedition was created by Enzoology Education, a social enterprise that produces Exploration Nation and HumaniTV, an online network featuring humanitarian aid programming to send the message that “science education is the tide that lifts all boats”.Enzo, Haley and Emma are part of the cast of Exploration Nation, an education program that features real kids doing real science research around the globe. These adventures are captured on video and coupled with lesson plans designed to inspire and motivate elementary and middle school students to take up careers in science.America’s Future as a Global Innovator Lies at the Feet of our Youngest Citizens According to a 2009 study by Raytheon, about 60% of students lose their interest in science before the age of 13. The study is just one that shows how students start elementary school genuinely excited about science. By the time they hit seventh grade, the majority feel that science is “boring” and irrelevant to their lives.Dave Wilson, director of academic programs at National Instruments, stated “In order for students to remain engaged in math and science, they need to actually experience the theory that educators put before them. Bringing the theory to life through hands-on experiences really helps students understand and learn better and makes the concepts more relevant to them.” National Instruments is well known for its technical innovation and dedication to science and math education.”Many science principles have been the same for hundreds of years.” says Robert Bourdelais of Ward’s Natural Science. “We are using 19th century methods to teach 21st century kids. Students today need to touch and feel science and learn by doing. A lecture environment doesn’t inspire today’s young students. The way we teach them needs to evolve and align with ever changing technology which is becoming the center of our modern world.”It should be no surprise that presenting science in a dry, isolated context to today’s super stimulated kids results in students becoming more and more disconnected from how innovation is at the core of human existence. The irony of this belief is lost on the most wired generation in history.It is a terrible irony that young people don’t believe science to be relevant to their lives when they are totally immersed in some of the most advanced technological innovation in the history of mankind. Even worse is the idea that any one of these kids has the potential to cure cancer, solve the energy problem or invent the next insanely great thing. Let’s just hope those kids are not in the 60% who fall through the cracks.How Does Helping the Indigenous People of Nicaragua Help America’s Students?According to world renowned paleontologist Dr. Jack Horner, “I think it’s time to do away with traditional classrooms where information is simply disseminated to students who are then expected to regurgitate that same information. We must now create environments where students have to think or create and solve problems or write using their imaginations in order to pass classes…” Horner says. “We need to show kids that active participation in science is exciting and important while motivating them to have their own adventures instead of hearing it second-hand.”Team XN: Expedition Central America is designed to inspire students to get actively involved in hands-on scientific study and show them how innovations in agriculture, renewable fuels, ethnobotany and medicine improve the living conditions of all people – especially the impoverished.The Rama Indians of the Mosquito Coast in Nicaragua are on the receiving end for the Expedition. “We chose the Rama to illustrate what life would be like minus innovation.” says Dr. Alfredo Lopez Salazar, owner of the Rio Indio Lodge in Nicaragua and a long time supporter of the indigenous populations in Central America. Dr. Lopez continues, “The Rama have a sophisticated tradition of thriving in the rain forest and an intimate knowledge of the plants and animals that surround them. But they currently struggle to fulfill their basic needs, such as medical care.”Team XN: Expedition Central AmericaThe team of kids and doctors will bring access to a wide range of medical procedures, basic drugs like antibiotics and analgesics as well as water purification and curriculum materials for the only school in the village.The fourteen day trek through the jungle will include several stops to create a series of lesson programs for Exploration Nation on subjects ranging from sustainable tropical agriculture and renewable energy to ethnobotany and austere medicine. These lessons will include instructional materials and video for elementary and middle school students.The Expedition is also broadcasting live to classrooms across the United States each day of the journey, free for any educators who want to follow the adventure as a learning experience for their students. The team is raising money for the expedition using a crowd funding strategy a growing trend in the scientific community.Thirteen year old Exploration Nation host, Emma, states, “I’m not sure what to expect. I guess the kids there won’t be much different from the kids here. They just don’t have as much stuff and when they get sick, they can’t go to the doctor. So we are bringing the doctors to them.”Learn more about the Expedition here: http://explorationnation.com/expedition-central-americaAll images by Pete Monfre.

Follow Scientific American on Twitter @SciAm and @SciamBlogs.Visit ScientificAmerican.com for the latest in science, health and technology news.
© 2012 ScientificAmerican.com. All rights reserved.
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Japan’s Nikkei outperforms as opposition wins big

LONDON (AP) — Japanese shares outperformed all others Monday amid hopes that the new government will enact fresh stimulus measures to boost the world’s third-largest economy.

Signs that U.S. politicians are inching toward a budget deal helped Wall Street open stronger than earlier predicted and shored up European markets after a bad morning.

The standout index was Japan‘s Nikkei 225, which closed up 0.9 percent at 9,828.88, its highest level since April, after the country’s Liberal Democratic Party swept back into power at weekend elections with a landslide victory.

Party chief Shinzo Abe, who is in line to become prime minister, favors increased spending on public works and setting a 3 percent economic growth target. He’s also expected to lobby for stronger action by the central bank to get Japan out of its deflationary trap.

“Japanese equities rallied today on the back of a resounding victory by Shinzo Abe‘s LDP, giving them a mandate to boost economic growth through more aggressive fiscal and monetary easing,” said Rebecca O’Keeffe, head of investment at Interactive Investor.

Expectations of further stimulus in Japan, despite the country’s sky-high debt levels and doubts over the effectiveness of looser economic policy, further weighed on the yen. The dollar was 0.4 percent higher at $ 83.73 yen.

The yen’s recent weakness is a potential boon to the country’s powerhouse exporters. Automaker Nissan Motor Co. rose 1.8 percent, Sony Corp. climbed 1.4 percent and Panasonic Corp jumped 2.3 percent.

Elsewhere, markets remained largely beholden to developments over the U.S. budget. The concern is whether the White House and Congress will agree a budget deal in time to avoid the “fiscal cliff” of automatic tax increases and spending cuts at the start of next year.

In Europe, the FTSE 100 index of leading British shares was down 0.4 percent at 5,896 while Germany’s DAX fell 0.1 percent to 7,590. The CAC-40 in France was 0.3 percent lower at 3,631.

In the U.S., the Dow Jones industrial average was up 0.5 percent at 13,194 while the broader S&P 500 index rose the same rate to 1,421.

Though the budget measures associated with the “fiscal cliff” would not all be introduced at once and the Republicans have indicated a willingness to increase taxes on households earning over $ 1 million, investors won’t breathe easily until a deal is signed, sealed and delivered.

“Investors have so far remained hopeful that an agreement can be reached in a sufficiently timely manner,” said Nick Bennenbroek, an analyst at Wells Fargo Bank. “However, with a year-end deadline for a deal now looming closer, those budget developments should become increasingly important through the end of December.”

In recent weeks, the dollar had suffered, at least against the euro, due to the U.S. budget fears. On Monday, the currencies were steady, with the euro up 0.1 percent at $ 1.3165.

Oil markets were subdued too, with the price of benchmark New York crude up 27 cents at $ 87 a barrel.

Elsewhere in Asia, China’s shares fared fairly well as its new leaders promised more spending if needed to underpin a wobbly economic recovery. Those hopes helped the Shanghai Composite to rise 0.4 percent to 2,160.34 and the smaller Shenzhen Composite index to end 0.4 percent higher to 819.58.

On Sunday, China’s new Communist Party leaders under party General Secretary Xi Jinping pledged a “proactive fiscal policy” and “prudent monetary policy” in a statement carried by the official Xinhua News Agency. They were references to the willingness to boost spending if needed and keep credit easy so long as inflation stays low.

Elsewhere in Asia, South Korea’s Kospi lost 0.6 percent to 1,983.07 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was down 0.4 percent at 22,513.61.

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Nigeria governor, 5 others die in helicopter crash

LAGOS, Nigeria (AP) — A navy helicopter crashed Saturday in the country’s oil-rich southern delta, killing a state governor and five other people, in the latest air disaster to hit Africa’s most populous nation, officials said.

Nigeria‘s ruling party said in a statement that the governor of the central Nigerian state of Kaduna, Patrick Yakowa, died in the helicopter crash in Bayelsa state in the Niger Delta. The People’s Democratic Party’s statement described Yakowa’s death as a “colossal loss.”

The statement said the former national security adviser, General Andrew Azazi, also died in the crash. Azazi was fired in June amid growing sectarian violence in Nigeria, but maintained close ties with the government.

Yushau Shuaib, a spokesman for Nigeria’s National Emergency Management Agency, said four other bodies had been found, but he could not immediately give their identities.

The crash occurred at about 3:30 p.m. after the navy helicopter took off from the village of Okoroba in Bayelsa state where officials had gathered to attend the burial of the father of a presidential aide, said Commodore Kabir Aliyu. He said that the helicopter was headed for Nigeria’s oil capital of Port Harcourt when it crashed in the Nembe area of Bayelsa state.

Aviation disasters remain common in Nigeria, despite efforts in recent years to improve air safety.

In October, a plane made a crash landing in central Nigeria. A state governor and five others sustained injuries but survived.

In June, a Dana Air MD-83 passenger plane crashed into a neighborhood in the commercial capital of Lagos, killing 153 people onboard and at least 10 people on the ground. It was Nigeria’s worst air crash in nearly two decades.

In March, a police helicopter carrying a high-ranking police official crashed in the central Nigerian city of Jos, killing four people.

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8 Christmas Light Shows That Will Rock Your Stockings Off

1. A Christmas Rock Medley

This mind-blowing video comes from South Dakota. Its creator uses the show’s publicity to help raise money for the Make-a-Wish Foundation.

Click here to view this gallery.

[More from Mashable: 63 Digital Media Resources You May Have Missed]

The winter celebration of the evergreen tree is not a modern tradition — it extends back to pre-Christian times and to cultures all over the world.

Maybe your holiday tradition involves stringing thousands of lights across your property for a majestic arrangement. Or perhaps your family just tours the neighborhood to see everyone else’s exhibits. Either way, YouTube is here to provide some sensational seasonal light shows for your viewing and listening pleasure, from festive homes all across the country.

[More from Mashable: 10 Adorable Dog Outfits for the Holidays]

Enjoy these creative displays, and maybe draw a little inspiration for next year’s decorations. If you’re worried about complexity, learn to do it yourself.

Have you seen an unforgettable holiday display we forgot to include? In the spirit of giving, let us know about it in the comments section below.

This story originally published on Mashable here.

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Sundance film “End of Love” finds distributor

LOS ANGELES (TheWrap.com) – Gravitas Ventures and Variance Films have acquired all North American rights to writer-director Mark Webber‘s drama “The End of Love,” the companies announced on Thursday.

The father-son drama, which debuted at this year’s Sundance Film Festival, stars Webber alongside Shannyn Sossamon (pictured), and Webber’s real-life son Isaac Love, and features appearances by Michael Cera, Jason Ritter, and Amanda Seyfried.

The film tells the story of struggling actor Mark (Webber), who is forced to grapple with his inability to grow up when the mother of his two-year-old son Isaac suddenly dies. As he kindles a relationship with a young single mother, Mark begins to realize that he can no longer remain in denial about the real-life consequences his choices have on Isaac.

Gravitas Ventures will debut the film across all major video on demand (VOD) platforms on January 21, 2013 with a theatrical release from Variance Films beginning March 1 2013 in select markets.

“Propelled by the authenticity and intimacy of the performances, our acquisition team was unanimous that ‘The End of Love’ was one of the strongest films not only of Sundance, but of all of the films we saw last year,” said Nolan Gallagher, founder and CEO of Gravitas Ventures.

“I’m thrilled that ‘The End of Love’ has found a home with Gravitas and Variance,” said Webber. “In the rapidly changing landscape of how films are seen, these two companies are at the forefront of embracing that change.”

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Child deaths and bitter cold in Syrian refugee camps

ZAATARI, Jordan (Reuters) – One-year-old Ali Ghazawi, born with a heart defect, faced a battle for survival even before his family fled Syria‘s civil war. It was a struggle he lost two weeks ago in the bitter winter cold of a tented refugee camp in north Jordan.

Ali died two days after undergoing a heart operation in Zaatari camp, which houses at least 32,000 refugees who escaped fierce bombardment in Syria’s rebellious southern province of Deraa, cradle of the uprising against President Bashar al-Assad.

“I covered my son with two blankets, but he was not warming up, and he turned blue before he passed away in my hands,” said his sobbing 22-year-old mother, alone with a three-year-old daughter after she left her husband in Deraa and crossed the border in November.

Ali was the fourth baby to die in three weeks in the windswept camp. United Nations aid workers say none of the deaths were the direct result of conditions in Zaatari, yet they highlight the challenge facing relief agencies scrambling to provide basic shelter for half a million refugees in the region.

“These deaths are a result of cumulative factors, some related to shortage in needs and natural causes. But on top of that, the reality that conditions are harsh cannot be ignored,” said Saba Mobaslat, program director at Save the Children.

Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey each host more than 130,000 registered refugees, and relief workers predict the numbers will only increase as violence escalates around the capital Damascus.

Mirroring Syria’s youthful population, almost 65 percent of Jordan’s camp residents are newborns and young children.

“Every night we are getting children as young as four days old, six days old, one week, two weeks old, and it’s a real struggle to try to make sure that everyone survives,” said Andrew Harper, Jordan head of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR).

“Women are giving birth on the border, and people are coming across pregnant. It’s a situation where we just need to redouble efforts, particularly as we move into winter, because you have hundreds of pregnant women who cross the border,” Harper said.

Families often send the most vulnerable to safety, he added, so alongside the very young in Zaatari are many older refugees. “Last night we had a couple who were 97 years old,” he said.

“CHILDREN’S CAMP”

Along the main road in the middle of the camp’s muddy and gravel streets, children of all ages race around the makeshift market place that sprang up after the camp opened in July.

Many families join in, out of enterprise or necessity, selling everything from hot falafel to household goods, old clothing and fresh vegetables.

“It’s a children’s camp. You walk into it and there are children everywhere. It’s in your face. The male adults are staying behind, and a woman comes with 10 children without her bread earner,” Mobaslat added.

In one of several UNICEF-run playgrounds, among seesaws, swings and volunteers giving music lessons, the scars of war are fresh in the minds of most children.

“I long for my home, and I hope Bashar falls to get back to my home. It’s much better than here, where we are humiliated,” said Mohammad Ghazawi, 12, who came to play after a break from selling cheap cigarettes.

Their elders complain that two thin blankets per refugee distributed in recent weeks were not enough to warm them in tents that let in rain water despite zinc reinforcements and waterproof layers that have helped insulate them.

“Kids are dying from cold and lack of blankets. My kids shiver at night, and one has constant diarrhea,” said Mohammad Samara, 46, who fled heavy shelling in the southern Syrian town of Busr al-Sham in October with his wife and four children.

Carsten Hansen, country director for the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC), which has set up a heated tent that receives families on arrival, says much progress has been made to help distribute aid.

“Everybody is trying to mobilize resources … in order to react to bigger numbers and a huge influx,” Hansen said, adding that 6,000 gas heaters had been airlifted to Jordan to help heat the tent camp.

FROM CRISIS TO DISASTER?

Harper said UNHCR was working to prevent “this humanitarian crisis becoming a major disaster”. But he said that while aid teams were racing to improve conditions at Zaatari, there were 100,000 other registered refugees living outside the camp and probably another 100,000 unregistered, whose living conditions were not improving.

In Lebanon, too, host to 154,000 refugees, many face a bleak winter, and aid workers expect their numbers to more than double by the middle of next year.

In the Bekaa Valley town of Bar Elias, a woman from the northern Syria province of Idlib says her home for the last year has been a wooden shack with only plastic sheeting to protect from the rain. Plastic bags are stuffed into the roof as extra insurance against leaks. “There is no water, no electricity, no school for my kids,” she said in a croaky voice.

“My husband is sick. The situation is very bad.”

Mads Almaas, NRC country director in Lebanon, said many more may flee Syria over the winter to escape worsening conditions there, putting even greater strain on relief efforts.

“The violence will not only continue but also get worse. And even in the increasingly likely event of the fall of Assad, we don’t think the violence will end,” he said.

Almaas said the United Nations would launch a regional response plan on Wednesday anticipating a total of 300,000 registered refugees in Lebanon by mid-2013. “At first we thought it was too high. Now we are concerned it is too low,” he said.

In Turkey, which hosts 136,000 refugees, camps for the most part have facilities such as portable electric heaters, and refugees receive three hot meals a day from the Red Crescent. But temperatures can plunge below freezing in the rugged terrain along the 900 kilometer (560 mile) border with Syria during the winter months, and rain can be torrential and cause flooding.

Overcrowding remains a concern, with extended families cramped in single tents and ever more refugees arriving as fighting across the border drags on.

Across the region, aid workers fear an explosion in violence could leave them seriously overstretched.

“Right now funds are sufficient. What is a challenge is if we get any shocks, something like 5,000-10,000 refugees arriving (in Lebanon) in a matter of hours,” Almaas said.

If fighting swept through the center of Damascus, thousands of Syrians could flee to the Lebanese border in a matter of hours. “For that, we are not prepared as the NRC. I also question the international community’s capacity.”

(Additional reporting by Oliver Holmes in Beirut and Nick Tattersall in Ankara; Editing by Dominic Evans and Will Waterman)

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